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Natural Science Forum / Earth Science / Oceanography / February 2005Cornell Feb 10 Seminar to Explore Sumatra Earthquake and Tsunami
http://www.news.cornell.edu/releases/Feb05/TsunamiSeminar.bpf.html Cornell Feb. 10 seminar to explore Sumatra earthquake and tsunami FOR RELEASE: Feb. 2, 2005 Contact: Blaine P. Friedlander Jr. Office: 607-254-8093 E-mail: bpf2@cornell.edu ITHACA, N.Y. -- Cornell University will present a seminar, "The Sumatra Earthquake and Tsunami: The Science Behind the Headlines," Thursday, Feb. 10, from 4:30 to 6 p.m. in room B14 of Hollister Hall. It is being held by the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering and the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. The public is invited to attend without charge. Philip Liu, professor of civil engineering, and Muawia Barazangi and Dan Karig, professors of earth and atmospheric sciences, will make presentations. Liu recently returned from a scientific fact-finding trip to Sri Lanka on the Dec. 26 Asian tsunami. Karig will provide a general overview of the geographical and geological setting of the region devastated by the tsunami. Barazangi will explain how the tsunami-triggering earthquake occurred near Sumatra along a major convergent plate boundary, where the oceanic Indian plate is subducting beneath the continental Southeast Asia plate. He says that as much as 750 miles of the contact zone between these two tectonic plates ruptured during the earthquake, with an average slip of 49 to 66 feet. "The occurrence of such mega-thrust, great earthquakes [magnitude 9] is infrequent, approximately once every 200 years," Barazangi says. "It appears that no such great earthquake occurred in the recent past along the northern continuation of this plate boundary from the Andaman Islands to Assam in northeast India. This is a matter of utmost concern for the future, considering that Bangladesh is located very near this segment of the plate boundary, and that most of this nation, with a population of over 130 million, lies very close to sea level," Barazangi says. He also will examine the tsunami threat to the eastern Mediterranean. Compounding this problem is a lack of warning system in the region, he says. -30- > http://www.news.cornell.edu/releases/Feb05/TsunamiSeminar.bpf.html > "It appears that no such great earthquake occurred in the recent past > along the northern continuation of this plate boundary from the [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > nation, with a population of over 130 million, lies very close to sea > level," Barazangi says. Snip> Jesus Christ!!! If that happens, they are F.U.B.A.R. > If that happens, they are F.U.B.A.R. Agreed. I have actually been saying exactly this for over a decade. The whole Himalayan front seems to be around a century late for one of it's regular great earthquakes. The recent quakes under the western end (Bhuj) and the eastern fault system (Sumatra) are nice clear reminders that the plate is still moving. A magnitude 8+ under the Ganges plain in the future is a racing certainty; exactly when it hits and how many millions it kills is a lottery.  SignatureAidan Karley, Aberdeen, Scotland, Location: 57°10'11" N, 02°08'43" W (sub-tropical Aberdeen), 0.021233 >> If that happens, they are F.U.B.A.R. >> [quoted text clipped - 7 lines] > certainty; exactly when it hits and how many millions it kills is a > lottery. Everybody knows that. What everybody doesn't know is what can be done about it. If the tsunami warning system is extended to the Indian Ocean, what more can be done? > If the tsunami warning system is extended to the Indian Ocean, what > more can be done? A tsunami warning system against the quake under discussion would be an (almost) complete and utter WOMBAT (Waste Of Money Brains And Time). While a few hundred thousand might (or might not) be killed by tsunami from (say) an 8.5 within 50km of New Delhi, they would pale into insignificance in comparison with the millions (possibly tens of millions) who would be killed by the quake on land and in the ensuing disruption. SignatureAidan Karley, Aberdeen, Scotland, Location: 57°10'11" N, 02°08'43" W (sub-tropical Aberdeen), 0.021233 > > If the tsunami warning system is extended to the Indian Ocean, what > > more can be done? > A tsunami warning system against the quake under discussion > would be an (almost) complete and utter WOMBAT (Waste Of Money Brains [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > millions) who would be killed by the quake on land and in the ensuing > disruption. Actually with the deforestaion that has taken place in the Himalayas in the last few decades, the danger posed is more than the likelihood the original post indicated. And the threat from river floods will sweep away -have swept away the numbers you quote. A 35 metre wave might be best compared to the splash from a two foot high bucket. The contents leaving the bucket at 500 mph will cause quite a lot of damage. But just down the coast on a different tidal line, the experience will be different. > http://www.news.cornell.edu/releases/Feb05/TsunamiSeminar.bpf.html > [quoted text clipped - 39 lines] > nation, with a population of over 130 million, lies very close to sea > level," Barazangi says. This is very true. Since we have it on the very best authority (nasa) that the mountain belts are pushing down on the subduction zone and forcing the crust down on the downgoing side, India is destined to slide right under the Himalayas, since it is still sliding off the spreading ridge. An average further slip of 50 - 70 feet of slip is bound to generate more fear than Larry's book, that Stuart got so stroppy about. Evidently if one is going to generate fear (in these days of terrorists and insurgency) then you gotta do it rite! Of course since India is locked in there by its horns, 50-70 feet of movement is guaranteed to be quite spectacular when it happens. Me for the front row, and an investment in leg prostheses. > He also will examine the tsunami threat to the eastern Mediterranean. > Compounding this problem is a lack of warning system in the region, > he says. Wow! you have to hand it to these boys. Terror knows no bounds. Anyone got a volcano they want to spruik? Or a bit of heavy-duty weather coming up? |
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