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Natural Science Forum / Earth Science / Oceanography / February 2006And the next one is..
Actually I haven't the foggiest, to coin a phrase, or to put it another way after watching the late BBC apology for a weather view: As with my previous comment on the subject vis a vis foggy weather, dissipation of occlusions, closely packed isobars and changes of phase of the moon following runs of successively similar weather sells; there is going to be another large magnitude earthquake very, very soon. Fuckwits insist that I have to fit it in a window. Can meteorologists, with all the power and the might of their departments of defence give a window for lightning strikes? Had the lightning conductor not been invented there wouldn't have been a cat in hell's chance. Today, they are to be congratulated if they get the whereabouts of thunderstorms in such windows. Here is the window for seismic events: Anytime now! There is imminent danger looming, so pass the word around to budding coal miners, aviation enthusiasts and would be earthquake predictors that The Weatherlawyer has spoken once more. Scour the world's weather maps for close isobars and occluded fronts, search the various data bases that you all had time to set up to prove me wrong. AND TELL TO ME THAT THE NEXT 7M PLUS IS NOT ON ITS WAY. (Or not as the case may be.) ( I'm going to look a plonker aren't I? But suppose I kept silent?) Do you know a bloke called Michael McNeil by any chance? Dave > Actually I haven't the foggiest, to coin a phrase, or to put it another > way after watching the late BBC apology for a weather view: [quoted text clipped - 25 lines] > > ( I'm going to look a plonker aren't I? But suppose I kept silent?) > Do you know a bloke called Michael McNeil by any chance? Do you always top post or is it just that you feeling lazy the day you made this post? Too lazy to do an internet search. I have read nearly all of his posts. He seems quite gifted if a little too abrasive for some of the fools he sems to feel that he has to deal with. Perhaps if he could just learn to ignore them it might help him improve his temper and his health? I was looking too, at the Eric Hablich website that shows the tracks of extant hurricanes. It would seem then, that his connecting the misty weather in Britain to the generation of hurricanes in the Norht Atlantic might well be extended to other regions when the official N Atlantic hurricane season is over. No doubt he will be making the claim that that is what he has always said, or intended to convey all along. Or not as the case may be. One has to admit that it is an amazing coincidence. What do you think about his latest idea about the location of near equatorial cyclones and earthquakes? Too ridiculous to invite comment? > > Do you know a bloke called Michael McNeil by any chance? > Too lazy to do an internet search? > I was looking too, at the Eric Hablich website that shows the tracks of extant > hurricanes. It would seem then, that his connecting the misty weather in Britain to the > generation of hurricanes in the North Atlantic might well be extended to other regions > when the official N Atlantic hurricane season is over. > No doubt he will be making the claim that that is what he has always > said, or intended to convey all along. > Or not as the case may be. Not in this case may I suppose. He fully expected that the change in the weather at the start of the spell would do the job. And had it, it would really have been interesting. However, shipwrecks and Canadian coal mine disasters aside, that experience has been ameliorated somewhat by the two or more cyclones in the southern hemisphere (which as it happens conform to his teaching as of several years ago.) Still active between continental Africa and Mocambique; Boloetse has already crossed that island and is due to hit it again or pass the southern tip tomorrow or the day after -coincidentally the day slated by the BBC to change for the better in the UK. http://satellite.ehabich.info/hurricane-watch.htm Should it delay until the next spell however (on the 5th at 06:29) the upshot of it would indicate yet more cyclonic activity rather than heinous seismicity. Whichever turns out to be true, it will be by no means, a small thing. In fact expect both and prepare for worse while a BLiar and a Chimp are masters of the north! My reasoning on this is that the "weather forecasters"<spit> will have got it wrong </clears throat> and that whilst dull stands the wind for Britain, the <spit> weather forecasters' </clears throat> getting it wrong and the climax of the synergy, would indicate a large mag quake. (If both then it might be an idea to look at a confluence of two oceans for the epicentres.) I believe that the NEIC site has sorted out its installation of computer software -at the moment. Until then, this link will keep you abreast of matters: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php > Still active between continental Africa and Mocambique; More info here: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=boloetse&btnG=Google+Search There is an interesting site here: http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/index.html That has collected data on the past seasns in the southern seas. Meanwhile I am continuing to learn. (Mainly geography today.) I seem to have had it in my nut that the Island of Madagascar was called something else. Beats me what. > Boloetse has already crossed that island and is due to hit it again or pass the > southern tip tomorrow or the day after -coincidentally the day slated > by the BBC to change for the better in the UK. > http://satellite.ehabich.info/hurricane-watch.htm > Scour the world's weather maps for close isobars and occluded fronts, > search the various data bases that you all had time to set up to prove > me wrong. AND TELL TO ME THAT THE NEXT 7M PLUS IS NOT ON ITS WAY. Yes I'm sure the next magnitude 7 is on its way at some point in the future, there's usually one every year or so. Well done, have your Cub/Scout "Earthquake prediction" badge. If you're so confident about yourself and your predictions, why are you cowering behind a behind a pseudonym? Richard I suppose it's routine for god to diabuse his less than humble servants of their omnipotence (oh hell, suppose I am in the same boat as acretin well known chimpanzee!!!) It still hurts though. > Actually I haven't the foggiest, to coin a phrase, or to put it another > way after watching the late BBC appology for a weather view: Lost sheep-r-us I now (hate to) have to admit. > As with my previous comment on the subject vis a vis foggy weather, > dissipation of occlusions, closely packed isobars and changes of phase > of the moon following runs of successively similar weather sells; there > is going to be another large magnitude earthquake very, very soon. > Anytime now! > There is imminent danger looming, so pass the word around to budding > coal miners, aviation enthusiasts and would be earthquake predictors > that The Weatherlawyer has spoken once more. > Scour the world's weather maps for close isobars and occluded fronts, > search the various data bases that you all had time to set up to prove > me wrong. AND TELL TO ME THAT THE NEXT 7M PLUS IS NOT ON ITS WAY. > (Or not as the case may be.) > ( I'm going to look a plonker aren't I? But suppose I kept silent?) Well, it serves me right. I promised a bunch of fireworks for this last set of spells and they never matured. I've got to say that I feel dumb. Worse still, I have to write some sort of a follow up. As of last night when it became obvious it was time to hang myself, there was absolutely nothing showing anywhere. Absolutely blank: 8th February 4.5 LA RIOJA, ARGENTINA 4.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA 4.7 PAKISTAN 5.1 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA 5.3 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND 7th February 5.2 TONGA 4.7 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE 5.1 EAST OF THE KURIL ISLANDS 4.4 NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY, CANADA 4.8 NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY, CANADA 5.3 VANUATU 4.3 NORTHERN ALASKA 5.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION 6th February 5.2 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA 5.0 KEPULAUAN ARU REGION, INDONESIA 4.8 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA 5.0 FIJI REGION 4.4 GEORGIA (SAK'ART'VELO) 4.3 NORTHERN ALASKA 5.2 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA 5.7 KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA, RUSSIA REGION 5.2 GEORGIA (SAK'ART'VELO) 5.6 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 4.0 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION 5th February 4.0 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND 5.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE 4.8 NORTHERN ALASKA 5.3 KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA 4.8 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION 4.8 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS 5.1 NORTHERN ALASKA 4.5 WESTERN MONTANA 4.1 FIJI REGION 4.4 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND 4th February 5.2 MOLUCCA SEA 4.4 REYKJANES RIDGE 5.3 REYKJANES RIDGE 4.9 KURIL ISLANDS 5.9 GALAPAGOS ISLANDS REGION 4.2 FIJI REGION 3rd February 4.6 SULAWESI, INDONESIA 4.8 PAGAN REGION, NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS 6.1 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION 5.6 TONGA 4.6 KYUSHU, JAPAN 5.1 FIJI REGION 5.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 4.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 4.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 5.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 4.5 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 4.4 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION 4.2 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE 4.9 NEPAL 2nd February 5.1 PAKISTAN 4.0 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND 4.3 GUATEMALA 4.9 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE 6.7 FIJI REGION 4.9 SOUTHERN PERU 5.6 SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS 4.2 SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA 4.8 BANDA SEA 1st February 4.8 WESTERN XIZANG-INDIA BORDER REGION 4.7 GUAM REGION 5.2 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS In fact from the 27th January -on, since the quake at Banda, there has been precious little of anything going on. I wonder if I can count a spell of snow from Japan to Spain? When did that start I wonder? 31st January 4.3 ATACAMA, CHILE 4.8 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 5.9 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA 4.2 OFF EAST COAST OF THE NORTH ISLAND, N.Z. 4.8 SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS 5.4 KALIMANTAN, INDONESIA 30th January 5.3 WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE 4.2 OFF EAST COAST OF THE NORTH ISLAND, N.Z. 4.7 CENTRAL ALASKA 4.8 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA 4.9 SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS 4.4 TAIWAN 29th January 4.5 SOUTH OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS 4.4 CELEBES SEA 4.2 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO 4.7 JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION 5.1 NEAR THE WEST COAST OF COLOMBIA 4.2 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN 4.3 FIJI REGION 4.9 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION 5.2 FIJI REGION 4.3 MAULE, CHILE 5.0 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS 4.7 NEW IRELAND REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 4.6 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE 4.7 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES 28th January 4.9 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND 4.2 LAKE BAYKAL REGION, RUSSIA 4.1 BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 4.9 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA 4.6 CATAMARCA, ARGENTINA 4.5 YUNNAN, CHINA 5.5 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND 4.5 CATAMARCA, ARGENTINA 4.2 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND 4.9 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA 27th January 4.5 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN 4.1 KYRGYZSTAN 4.1 NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND 7.6 BANDA SEA*** 4.6 SOLOMON ISLANDS 4.4 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES 4.9 SOUTH OF BALI, INDONESIA 4.0 JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION 4.6 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE 5.1 GULF OF ALASKA 4.9 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA 4.7 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS 5.1 NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL PERU 4.0 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO 4.2 FIJI REGION 4.3 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA 4.5 KURIL ISLANDS 4.4 KEPULAUAN TANIMBAR REGION, INDONESIA Here is the volcano news for the same period. For the whole week from the first of February: An ash cloud emitted from Cleveland was detected on satellite imagery on 6 February. The ash cloud detached from the volcano and there was no indication of continuous ash emission. Ash had largely dissipated on satellite imagery by 13:41. This is from the week before: After several days with no ash emissions and relatively low seismicity, Augustine erupted again on 27 January. The eruption lasted about 9 minutes. An eruption at 23:37 lasted 1 minute. Augustine was in a state of continuous eruption from 28 January through 31 January. The activity was characterized by steady ash emission and small pyroclastic flows. Also, ash-and-steam clouds rose from pyroclastic flows on the N flank of the volcano. http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/volclist/index.htm Hardly a preposessing report is it? In fact it is rather a hard smack in the gob for me. Good job I can take it. > I suppose it's routine for god to disabuse his less than humble servants > of their omnipotence But it would be nice to know what the hell is going on. As it happens I just asked him. All I got for an answer was this: MAP 4.2 2006/02/23 02:40:55 -21.498 33.515 10.0 MOZAMBIQUE MAP 5.3 2006/02/23 02:22:08 -21.282 33.231 10.0 MOZAMBIQUE MAP 5.4 2006/02/23 01:23:42 -21.313 33.385 10.0 MOZAMBIQUE MAP 2.8 2006/02/22 23:01:54 59.819 -147.115 5.0 GULF OF ALASKA MAP 7.5 2006/02/22 22:19:09 -21.215 33.337 10.0 MOZAMBIQUE And I'm buggered if I can understand it! However it is interesting to note that there is more than one serious research unit out there that is trying to fit the pieces together without making them fit. I dare say that the lack of funds will serve as good as the depth of our preceding ignorance to hold things back. I get a picture of the angels in the Appocalypse, holding back the four winds. I think that this year would be a most propitious one for restarting. |
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