Natural Science Forum / Earth Science / Oceanography / February 2006

In order to have a "cycle" there needs to be regularity. Nothing like
the current conditions can be found in human history.

Paleotempestology, the study of violent weather, does not have anything
like the current conditions anywhere in it's database. What we do have
clear undisputed records of is an escalation of weather violence, which
has been increasing for a century and has reached an all-time peak in
the last decade.

http://tinyurl.com/acsnd

* The most recent decade had 9.9 times the the busyness of intense
storms from the first 99 years of the average decade of the time
period.

* It had more busy peak years back-to-back than any of 14 earlier
decades.

* From 1850 through 1940 there were 28 mild years without any
hurricanes above catagory 2. There have only been four mild years since
then. The average jumped from one mild year ever 2.8 years to one mild
year every 16 years.

* There have been only two periods out of 154 years with high density
powerful storms continuously every year containing more than one strong
hurricane above cat 2. One of them is the recent ten year stretch.

* When you look at the record, only one decade had 9 out of 10 years
with more than 2 strong hurricanes -- the recent decade.

* Only one decade had seven busy years out of ten, of more than six
hurricanes in a year. The next closest was the turbulent 50's with only
four busy years.

GLOBAL WARMING is HERE NOW, not someday by and by. The data is on the
NOAA website is you know how to parse it out of the noise. Subtract
away less significant common denominators, until the evidence is
staring you in the face.

This is not the time to go into denial because you wanted Global
Warming to wait until later. The data can't be denied without severing
links to reality. That is called insanity.

No, you are a deluded top posting lliar :

ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdf

Whether or not this spate of Hurricanes has anything to do with global
warming, I'll reserve judgement until I read more.

However, the idea that global warming won't effect hurricanes strikes
me as probably wrong.

Hurricanes derive there power from latent heat release from the
condensation of water. How much evaporation takes place is strongly
affected by sea-surface termperature. Global warming should contribute
something to sea-surface temperature.

When was the last time we had this many >=  Cat3 storms in one season?

Global warming may not increase the frequency, but I think its a good
bet they affect the overall expenditure of energy of Hurricanes. I hope
they do a good job fixing those levees down south.

Stuart