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Natural Science Forum / Earth Science / Oceanography / April 2008Is 2008 colder than the average ? X-Posting
According Michel Jarraud, generale secretary of the WMO, 2008 should be colder than average. Met offices found a suddden drop of temperature after june 2007. Bevor being condemned to be a person ignoring the globale warming let´s discuss about the effect of La Nina. Oceanographic Studies figure out clearly that a new La Nina Phase is activ. This explains why in Africa and Australia we had so much rain. Even the very low temperatures in China can be explained with La Nina. Sure the effect has only minor effects for Europe but the mild winter could be a result of this effect. Normaly La Nina is only activ for a 9 til 12 months period. But correlation with the above average 98 occurance show that even a 2 jaer Influence is possible What do you think ? Marc The study of El Nino and La Nina is in its infancy. But clearly El Nino and La Nina have effects that extend far beyond the Pacific. What those effects are remain to be clarified. As for this past winter....well it certainly was unusual. Maybe the best that can be said is that a strong La Nina is likely to produce less "ordinary" weather in far flung parts of the planet - expect the unusual and there won't be disappointment. I draw a parallel. In my youth, plate tectonics was scarcely understood and was little more than a hypothesis. I am sure that El Nino and La Nina phenomena - scarcely understood today - will be as mainstream 50 years from now as plate tectonics is today. Jack On Apr 11, 12:35 pm, "kieler.sprotte" <kieler.spro...@sprott.net> wrote: > According Michel Jarraud, generale secretary of the WMO, 2008 should be > colder than average. After 3 months of 2008 and a weakening La nina, I'd put this as remote. Met offices found a suddden drop of temperature > after june 2007. Bevor being condemned to be a person ignoring the > globale warming let´s discuss about the effect of La Nina. > > Oceanographic Studies figure out clearly that a new La Nina Phase is > activ. Activ? NOAA, the Aussie Met Bureau and the majotity of the predictive models show it to be weakening. This explains why in Africa and Australia we had so much rain. many parts of Australia are currently in the grip of drought despite La Nina. > Even the very low temperatures in China can be explained with La Nina. How? > Sure the effect has only minor effects for Europe but the mild winter > could be a result of this effect. It really is a "could". No research points to the bulk of any type of UK winter being the result of La Nina. Normaly La Nina is only activ for a 9 > til 12 months period. Not always: this page will help: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml But correlation with the above average 98 > occurance show that even a 2 jaer Influence is possible Not possible, recorded a number of times: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml > What do you think ? Not a lot here, Marc! On Apr 11, 12:35�pm, "kieler.sprotte" <kieler.spro...@sprott.net> wrote: > According Michel Jarraud, generale secretary of the WMO, 2008 should be > colder than average. > > Marc I believe what Michael Jarrud actually said was that this year would be cooler than 2007, not cooler than average. It should in fact still be warmer than average. Although La Nina is expected to gradually weaken this year with neutral conditions by the 3rd quarter, there is a significant lag before its cooling effect wares off. Dick Lovett > On Apr 11, 12:35�pm, "kieler.sprotte" <kieler.spro...@sprott.net> > wrote: [quoted text clipped - 11 lines] > > Dick Lovett Now that would be a lot more sensible, Dick. The chances of this year being below average, with GW highly likely (never certain) to continue are extremely slim. It is 169 months, over 14 years, since the world experienced a month which was colder that the 127+ years NASA average. It is 31 years since the world experienced a year colder than that sequence's average year and 2008 is almost certain to make that 32. It is moot whether 2008 will be warmer, of colder than 2007. Paul |
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