Natural Science Forum / Physics / General Physics / July 2008

In most global climate models, an increase in CO2 causes an initial
warming.  This initial warming leads to enhanced evaporation at the
surface and a general moistening of the atmosphere.  The added
moisture causes further warming due to water vapor being a strong
infrared absorber.  The amplifying effect is calculated to be large,
increasing the global average warming by 70%-90% compared to
calculations that maintain a fixed water vapor (Cess et al, 1990).

Fixed water vapor content with increased temperature means a lower
relative humidity.  Therefore, most global climate models predicate a
stable relative humidity with an escalating rise in water vapor
content.  It is this rise in water vapor, known as the tipping point,
which is supposed to lead to runaway global warming.  (Cubasch et al,
2001)

A key prediction of Miskolczi’s finite semi-transparent model
http://met.hu/doc/idojaras/vol111001_01.pdf
is that the energy minimum principle will lead to a *reduction* in the
water vapor content to keep the green house factor constant.

The following is from Miskolczi’s paper.
“Since the world oceans are virtually unlimited sources and sinks of
the atmospheric water vapor (optical depth), the system - depending on
the time constant of the different energy reservoirs - has many ways
to restore the equilibrium situation and maintain the steady state
global climate. For example, in case the increased CO2 is compensated
by reduced H2O, then the general circulation has to re-adjust itself
to maintain the meridional energy flow with less water vapor
available. This could increase the global average rain rate and speed
up the global water cycle resulting in a more dynamical climate, but
still the energy balance equations do not allow the average surface
temperature to rise. The general circulation can not change the global
radiative balance although, changes in the meridional heat transfer
may result in local or zonal warming or cooling which again leads to a
more dynamical climate.”  Miskolczi, pp. 23-4

Which leads me to NASA's Aqua satellite launched in 2002 to measure
the water vapor content of the earth’s atmosphere.

NASA released the following in 2004.
“A NASA-funded study found some climate models might be overestimating
the amount of water vapor entering the atmosphere as the Earth warms.
Since water vapor is the most important heat-trapping greenhouse gas
in our atmosphere, some climate forecasts may be overestimating future
temperature increases.”

And near the bottom,
‘"The increases in water vapor with warmer temperatures are not large
enough to maintain a constant relative humidity," Minschwaner said.
These new findings will be useful for testing and improving global
climate models.’
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/stories/humidity_20040315/

An Australian scientist (Dr Jennifer Marohasy, born 1963, a senior
fellow at the Australian think tank the Institute of Public Affairs)
stated the case more starkly.  http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23411799-7583,00.html

“Duffy: "Can you tell us about NASA's Aqua satellite, because I
understand some of the data we're now getting is quite important in
our understanding of how climate works?"

Marohasy: "That's right. The satellite was only launched in 2002 and
it enabled the collection of data, not just on temperature but also on
cloud formation and water vapor. What all the climate models suggest
is that, when you've got warming from additional carbon dioxide, this
will result in increased water vapor, so you're going to get a
positive feedback. That's what the models have been indicating. What
this great data from the NASA Aqua satellite ... (is) actually showing
is just the opposite, that with a little bit of warming, weather
processes are compensating, so they're actually limiting the
greenhouse effect and you're getting a negative rather than a positive
feedback."”

Without positive water vapor feedback in the atmosphere it is
difficult to see how increased CO2 can have anything but a small
impact on climate change.

Dr. Miskolczi made a prediction about the drying of the atmosphere
which has been supported by Aqua measurements of water vapor.  I think
that Ferenc's theory deserves more attention and respect.

--Mike Jr