Natural Science Forum / Physics / General Physics / July 2008

Watch the Solar Cycle 24 no show at this link:
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/sunspots/

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) says the following
about predictions for the size (number of sun spots) of Solar Cycle
24:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/Press_Briefing_Biesecker.ppt

“What would cause the big predictors to think small
       If solar minimum drags out beyond March, 2008”

It is July 4, 2008 and solar cycle 24 is no where to be found.

“What would cause the small predictors to think big
      If either the magnetic field at the sun’s poles increases in
strength or geomagnetic
      activity increases before March, 2008”

For the sun’s magnetic field for the 2nd quarter of 2008, I went to:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/old_indices/2008Q2_DGD.txt

Here is what I found for the Average Geomagnetic Planetary Index (Ap)
Std = 5.093094895
Mean = 7.845238095
Variance = 25.93961561

Compare this to all of 1999
Std = 12.37809805
Mean = 15.6969697
Variance = 153.2173112

To see a graph of the sun’s the Average Geomagnetic Planetary Index
(Ap) since 1991 take a look at:
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/06/15/more-signs-of-the-sun-slowing-down/

My conclusion?  Apologies to Dr. David H. Hathaway but Solar cycle 24
will be very small.

Why should you care? Compare this to the seven straight solar cycles
from 1940 to 1998.
   All seven had peaks greater than 80
   Four had peaks greater than 120
   And one had a peak greater than 180

Compare this to the 19th century
   Only four had peaks greater than 80
   Four had peaks less than 80

Want to know why the late 20th century was hot?  It’s the sun.

Burn as much CO2 as you want.  It will not make any difference.

BTW, I would divest your 401K's of those carbon trading stocks.

--Mike Jr