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Natural Science Forum / Physics / General Physics / July 2008



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Why the price of Energy cannot go Down

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Jerry Kraus - 26 Jul 2008 20:31 GMT
There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world until we run
out, according to current estimates.  The critical point is that we
have no alternative energy technology to replace oil.  And that means
that, although there is no current shortage in our oil supply, there
is a shortage in our energy supply as determined by the free market.
Because the free market takes issues of long term supply and demand
into account.  So, until we develop some realistic alternative to oil
that can be developed within the next 30-40 years, the price of energy
must remain high in response to this long-term energy supply deficit.

The only realistic alternative is controlled nuclear fusion.  This is
extremely dangerous to develop, which is why it is not being developed
by lily-livered physicist-bureaucrats in the University system.  There
is very little difference between a nuclear fusion reactor and a
Hydrogen Bomb: a small difference in mass.  And very few scientists
care to risk being vaporized on a regular basis.  They prefer long-
term projects like the current ITER in France, in which they work on
equations for decades without actually building any working fusion
reactors: it's a lot safer, and very steady work!

At some point, the risks of energy depletion may be seen to be greater
than the risks of developing real nuclear fusion reactors, which are
considerable.  Till then, the price of energy cannot go down.
Kyle T. Jones - 26 Jul 2008 21:17 GMT
> There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
> high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world until we run
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> that can be developed within the next 30-40 years, the price of energy
> must remain high in response to this long-term energy supply deficit.

Huh?  Why not just say that the oil market takes issues of long term
supply and demand (speculation) into account, and not have to go through
all this other hand-wringing?

> The only realistic alternative is controlled nuclear fusion.  This is
> extremely dangerous to develop, which is why it is not being developed
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
> equations for decades without actually building any working fusion
> reactors: it's a lot safer, and very steady work!

Toshiba is on the verge of building neighborhood nuke plants:

http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news-toshiba-micro-nuclear-12.17
b.html


> At some point, the risks of energy depletion may be seen to be greater
> than the risks of developing real nuclear fusion reactors, which are
> considerable.  Till then, the price of energy cannot go down.

I'm certain someone, somewhere, said the same thing in during the 70's
crunch.

Cheers.
The Trucker - 26 Jul 2008 22:08 GMT
>> There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
>> high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world until we run
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> supply and demand (speculation) into account, and not have to go through
> all this other hand-wringing?

If I have oil and I know it will be worth much more in the future than it
is today and I do not need the income from the sale of that oil right now
then I will probably hold on to it.  But there is no "must" to it.  There
is the other side of that nickle:  If I know that there will be
alternatives or I know that there are and will be more options then there
is a limit to how much I can get for the oil now and in the future.

Giving __**OUR**__ oil away to the multinational oil companies does
absolutely nothing to resolve this problem in __**OUR**__ favor.  The
multinationals, being the owners of the oil, will conduct themselves just
as the current owners of the oil.  The proper solution is alternatives
and that includes near term as well as long term.  I have seen enough to
convince me that Hydrogen Boosters work (that these rigs improve fuel
efficiency by at least 15%).  There are just too many sellers and buyers
and people that claim they work.  I am rather angry overt the fact that
our, so called, representatives have not put any pressure on the "Consumer
Protection Agency" to test these rigs and debunk them or admit that they
work.  Either is fine with me, but the CPA has a web page and you can see
that they have tested these sorts of things in the past and that this is
the reason for their existence.  So why do I hear this loud snoring sound
on Capital Hill?  Could it be that the oil companies own the government?

A 15% decrease in fuel consumption in the USA will put gas prices below $3
a gallon if all the bullshit about supply and demand is more than just
Republican pig prancing.  That is because we would have the supply demand
balance we had 2 years ago.

Signature

"I know no safe depository of the ultimate powers
of society but the people themselves; and
if we think them not enlightened enough to
exercise their control with a wholesome
discretion, the remedy is not to take it from
them, but to inform their discretion by
education." - Thomas Jefferson
http://GreaterVoice.org/extend

hhc314@yahoo.com - 27 Jul 2008 03:50 GMT
> I'm certain someone, somewhere, said the same thing in during the 70's
> crunch.

Undeed, some of the news readers did.

Wha happend then was when it became public that oil tanker's were
sitting deep in the water off the east coast, holding withholding oil
from delivery until gas prices topped $2,00/gallon and gas lines at
the pumps were 5-hours long to purchase a half tankful of gas there
was a bit of rebellion by both the public and the US government. The
combined two actions ended the problem.

I don't want to lecture on relatively recent history, but the reaction
of the public was a bit draconic, as was that of the government.
People began to run their cars on emepty, and carry a few gallons in
an emergency can in the even they ran out.  The US Coast Guard was
assigned to clear the shipping channels of anchored tanker, and drive
them back out to sea, sometimes in the face or incoming atlantic
storms, at the risk of losing both their ships and their cargos.
Suddenly, the motivation for profit became secondary to them and their
companies to their survival and that of their tankers.

Within a week, there were no more anchored tankers in line in Delaware
Bay, or the Chesepake, or along Predisidents Roads, and I doubt if
even a warning shot was ever fired.  Result was, the gas lines
vanished within 2-weeks and the pump price of gas at the pump never
more than sliighly varied.  I gues that we have Gerald Ford to thank
for that, plus in some measure gas station operators (who refused to
raise their prices in the face of blackmail), and the American driving
public for adapting to the fuel shortages.

Things however have changed over the decades, and tanker captains no
longer speculate by purchasing and then selling their cargos to the
highest bidders as they did at that time. Today, their cargos are
owned by some speculator sitting in a high-rise in New York or some
other part of the world, and not on a tanker that their wealth in
invested into.  So they can afford to play loose and fast.  Their
worst nightmare is bidding up crude oil to $140 a barrel, then having
to sell it as the market declines for the more conventional price of
$78/barrel.  This may be what we are starting to see happen over the
past 10 days.

Just watch what happend during the next 120 days as airlines cut their
flights to save on fuel, and as cruise lines increase the price of
their cruises to compensate for the increased cost of powering these
gigantic floating hotels. Most of us are simply using our old rusted
out fuel efficnet rust bucket, and letting for now the SUV to sit
parked in the driveway until gas prices fall into the area of $3.00 or
less/gallon, which might take as much as three months or more.

Harry C.
jmfbahciv - 27 Jul 2008 14:27 GMT
>> I'm certain someone, somewhere, said the same thing in during the 70's
>> crunch.
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> I don't want to lecture on relatively recent history, but the reaction
> of the public was a bit draconic, as was that of the government.

What are you talking about?  That happened because the government
was controlling supply and distribution.  This is what will happen when
Congress tries to do the same thing again.

<snip>

/BAH
hhc314@yahoo.com - 27 Jul 2008 15:49 GMT
> hhc...@yahoo.com wrote:
> >> I'm certain someone, somewhere, said the same thing in during the 70's
[quoted text clipped - 19 lines]
>
> /BAH

Sorry BAH, I saw it with own eyes...I saw those anchored tankers
sitting low in the water and simply waiting until the USCG discouraged
their illegal parking!  :-)

Did you, or are you simply posting like someone with (as they say in
Philadelpha), "a man with a paper a.shole".

I never quite understand the exact meaning of the expression, but it
gets the point across,  I tend to believe it refers to someone who has
read everything, personally experienced nothing, and tends to blow a
lot of smoke out of their a.s.

Harry C.
The Trucker - 27 Jul 2008 18:23 GMT
>> hhc...@yahoo.com wrote:
>> >> I'm certain someone, somewhere, said the same thing in during the 70's
[quoted text clipped - 31 lines]
> read everything, personally experienced nothing, and tends to blow a
> lot of smoke out of their a.s.

Anyone who actually believes that government was controlling oil
"production" and distribution to an extent that would have caused the oil
shocks of the 70's is a hopeless idiotlogue.

There is one, and only one, actual cause of the problems of the 70's, and
that was the Kennedy tax cuts coupled with the Johnson spending the the
Nixon cutting of the gold cord.  The one and only one focused cause
was the huge devaluation of the currency.  That was the cause of the fuel
crises then and now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis  -------------------------

Yom Kippur War/Ramadan War

On October 6, 1973, Syria and Egypt launched a military attack on Israel
starting the Yom Kippur War, also known as the Ramadan War or October
War. [1] The persistence of the Arab-Israeli conflict finally triggered
pressure on the West over its support of Israel (in part because of
operations such as Operation Nickel Grass). Egypt and Syria, though not
major oil-exporting countries, joined the latter grouping to help
articulate its objectives. On October 17, 1973, Arab states placed an
embargo on oil as punishment for U.S. support for Israel in the Yom
Kippur War. [2] During the war the Arab world imposed an oil embargo
against the United States, Western Europe, and Japan for their support of
Israel. By the early 1970s the great Western oil conglomerates suddenly
faced a unified bloc of producers.

The Arab-Israeli conflict triggered a crisis already in the making. The
West could not continue to increase its energy use 5% annually, pay low
oil prices, yet sell inflation-priced goods to the petroleum producers in
the Third World. This was stressed by the Shah of Iran, whose nation was
the world's second-largest exporter of oil and the closest ally of the
United States in the Middle East at the time. "Of course [the world price
of oil] is going to rise," the Shah told the New York Times in 1973.
"Certainly! And how...; You [Western nations] increased the price of
wheat you sell us by 300%, and the same for sugar and cement...; You buy
our crude oil and sell it back to us, refined as petrochemicals, at a
hundred times the price you've paid to us...; It's only fair that, from
now on, you should pay more for oil. Let's say ten times more."[3]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Signature

"I know no safe depository of the ultimate powers
of society but the people themselves; and
if we think them not enlightened enough to
exercise their control with a wholesome
discretion, the remedy is not to take it from
them, but to inform their discretion by
education." - Thomas Jefferson
http://GreaterVoice.org/extend

jmfbahciv - 28 Jul 2008 13:27 GMT
>>> hhc...@yahoo.com wrote:
>>>>> I'm certain someone, somewhere, said the same thing in during the 70's
[quoted text clipped - 30 lines]
> "production" and distribution to an extent that would have caused the oil
> shocks of the 70's is a hopeless idiotlogue.

Do you really think that people, who wanted to buy gas, volunteered
the even/odd distribution method?  Just that imposition alone,
caused gas lines because people paniced.  There were wives in my
area who spent their entire day waiting in line for 2 gallons of
gas.

<snip>

/BAH
zzbunker@netscape.net - 28 Jul 2008 14:51 GMT
> >>> hhc...@yahoo.com wrote:
> >>>>> I'm certain someone, somewhere, said the same thing in during the 70's
[quoted text clipped - 36 lines]
> area who spent their entire day waiting in line for 2 gallons of
> gas.

  But, the idiots *should have* learned the lessons about gasoline
rationing in *WWII*.
  But, the idiots are just simply uneducable about population growth,
inflation,
  and local area transportion.
  Which is why today, people have started working, on  AI, Digital,
English-as-a-tenth language,
  Holograms,  CD,  DVD+RW;  nano-tech, Lasers, Drones, PV Cells,
Fiber :Optics, Optical Computers;
  Robots, nuclear energy,  long-life batteries, electric vehicles;
solar, wind, and tidal energy;
  bio-diesel, GPS, and Cruise Missiles..
  Rather than wasting more precious time on more "Gasoline Solutions
for the idiots".

> <snip>
>
> /BAH- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
The Trucker - 28 Jul 2008 15:50 GMT
>>>> hhc...@yahoo.com wrote:
>>>>>> I'm certain someone, somewhere, said the same thing in during the 70's
[quoted text clipped - 36 lines]
> area who spent their entire day waiting in line for 2 gallons of
> gas.

You seem incapable of distinguishing cause and effect.

Signature

"I know no safe depository of the ultimate powers
of society but the people themselves; and
if we think them not enlightened enough to
exercise their control with a wholesome
discretion, the remedy is not to take it from
them, but to inform their discretion by
education." - Thomas Jefferson
http://GreaterVoice.org/extend

jmfbahciv - 29 Jul 2008 13:09 GMT
>>>>> hhc...@yahoo.com wrote:
>>>>>>> I'm certain someone, somewhere, said the same thing in during the 70's
[quoted text clipped - 36 lines]
>
> You seem incapable of distinguishing cause and effect.

The way the Feds controlled distribution was limit distribution.

/BAH
jmfbahciv - 28 Jul 2008 13:18 GMT
>> hhc...@yahoo.com wrote:
>>>> I'm certain someone, somewhere, said the same thing in during the 70's
[quoted text clipped - 19 lines]
> sitting low in the water and simply waiting until the USCG discouraged
> their illegal parking!  :-)

I didn't say it didn't happen.  I disagreed with your conclusion about
why those tankers were parked and not allowed to unload.
Don't you remember that fuel was under distribution and price controls?

> Did you, or are you simply posting like someone with (as they say in
> Philadelpha), "a man with a paper a.shole".

I keep forgetting who is nuts in this newsgroup.

<snip>

/BAH
retrogrouch@comcast.net - 28 Jul 2008 16:04 GMT
>>> I'm certain someone, somewhere, said the same thing in during the 70's
>>> crunch.
[quoted text clipped - 13 lines]
>What are you talking about?  That happened because the government
>was controlling supply and distribution.  

How do you figure they did that?

>This is what will happen when
>Congress tries to do the same thing again.
jmfbahciv - 29 Jul 2008 13:09 GMT
>>>> I'm certain someone, somewhere, said the same thing in during the 70's
>>>> crunch.
[quoted text clipped - 13 lines]
>
> How do you figure they did that?

By edicting when someone could by gas.  The psychological reaction
made it a mess and caused more wastage.  The tankers were not
unloaded because the flow of the liquid was artificially reduced.

/BAH
G=EMC^2 Glazier - 29 Jul 2008 20:03 GMT
Less money for the American Godfather and his two top lieutenants Bush
and Chaney   Bert
Uncle Al - 26 Jul 2008 21:23 GMT
> There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
> high
[snip naivete]

> The only realistic alternative is controlled nuclear fusion.
[snip crap]

Tolerences in electronics average.  Circuit boards work.

Tolerences in magnetohydrodynamics multiply, hand-held fusors to
stars.  There is no "controlled nuclear fusion" at any scale in any
venue under any circumstances including negative feedback.

Petroleum is not an irreplaceable source of energy, git.  Petroleum is
the source of petrochemicals.  Fisher-Tropsch won't get you there nor
will coal.  Uncle Al calls for a $trillion Gas Coalification Project!
Convert natural gas into carbon for burial and hydrogen for venting.
If stupidity got us into this mess, then why can't stupidity get us
out?

Signature

Uncle Al
http://www.mazepath.com/uncleal/
(Toxic URL! Unsafe for children and most mammals)
http://www.mazepath.com/uncleal/lajos.htm#a2

Rod Speed - 26 Jul 2008 21:46 GMT
> There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil
> is so high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world
> until we run out, according to current estimates.  The critical point
> is that we have no alternative energy technology to replace oil.

Corse there is. And more than one of them too.

> And that means that, although there is no current shortage in our oil supply,
> there is a shortage in our energy supply as determined by the free market.

Nope, just speculation on the price of the oil.

> Because the free market takes issues of long term supply and demand into account.

Nice theory, pity about the real world.

> So, until we develop some realistic alternative to oil
> that can be developed within the next 30-40 years,

We've already got those.

> the price of energy must remain high in response to this long-term energy supply deficit.

Thats what was claimed in the 70s too and turned out to be just plain wrong.

> The only realistic alternative is controlled nuclear fusion.

Wrong, fission is a perfectly viable alternative.

> This is extremely dangerous to develop,

Wrong again. Its just difficult.

> which is why it is not being developed by lily-livered
> physicist-bureaucrats in the University system.

Wrong again.

> There is very little difference between a nuclear fusion reactor
> and a Hydrogen Bomb: a small difference in mass.

Thats as silly as saying that there is no difference between uranium
in the ground and nuclear bom, a small difference in mass.

> And very few scientists care to risk being vaporized on a regular basis.

Thanks for that completely superfluous proof that you dont
actually have a clue about anything to do with fusion.

> They prefer long- term projects like the current ITER in France, in
> which they work on equations for decades without actually building
> any working fusion reactors: it's a lot safer, and very steady work!

Thanks for that completely superfluous proof that you dont
actually have a clue about anything to do with fusion.

> At some point, the risks of energy depletion may be seen to be
> greater than the risks of developing real nuclear fusion reactors,

Or we may just get a clue and use readily available fission technology instead.

> which are considerable.

Thanks for that completely superfluous proof that you dont
actually have a clue about anything to do with fusion.

> Till then, the price of energy cannot go down.

How odd that its just gone down and did so in spades after the 70s.
The Trucker - 26 Jul 2008 21:46 GMT
> There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
> high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world until we run
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> that can be developed within the next 30-40 years, the price of energy
> must remain high in response to this long-term energy supply deficit.

That supposed explanation is total horseshit.  The amount paid for the fue
is what the market will bear and there is insufficient competition to
bring down the price.  That is the _BASIS_.  However, the futures markets
allow a multiplication of that basis and that is the way the current
prices are being set.

> The only realistic alternative is controlled nuclear fusion.

<<<<<<<<<  remaining stuff deleted as inappropriate >>>>>>

If you want to talk about what should be done for 10 - 20 years from now
then don't start out with fictitious claims concerning current prices.
It would be less expensive and a lot faster to use coal with scrubbers
than to use current nuclear technology.  No matter how you do it you can't
convert the current fleet of vehicles to electric or hydrogen power for at
least 15 years.  So, again, don't start out talking about current fuel
prices.

Signature

"I know no safe depository of the ultimate powers
of society but the people themselves; and
if we think them not enlightened enough to
exercise their control with a wholesome
discretion, the remedy is not to take it from
them, but to inform their discretion by
education." - Thomas Jefferson
http://GreaterVoice.org/extend

Econotron - 26 Jul 2008 22:44 GMT
> There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
> high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world until we run
> out, according to current estimates.  [snip]

Where do those estimates come from? Any source? I do not believe they are
even nearly accurate.
e.
Ivan - 26 Jul 2008 23:01 GMT
>> There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
>> high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world until we run
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> even nearly accurate.
> e.

<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/12/bp.oil>
Econotron - 27 Jul 2008 00:14 GMT
>>> There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
>>> high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world until we run
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
>
> <http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/12/bp.oil>

Thanks, but he probably meant the reserves that are currently being
exploited. Then, it sounds about right.
e.
Ivan - 27 Jul 2008 16:48 GMT
>>>> There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
>>>> high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world until we run
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
> exploited. Then, it sounds about right.
> e.
Ivan - 27 Jul 2008 16:54 GMT
>>>> There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
>>>> high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world until we run
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
> exploited. Then, it sounds about right.
> e.

However I doubt very much if even 50% of that he's going to be 'easily'
recoverable without geophysical, economic and political, considerations
rearing their ugly heads over the next 40 years, and then of course with the
world's population predicted to increase by another 50 per cent within the
next 30 years, we have to assume that demand will also keep on escalating,
it may therefore not be such a rosy scenario as he would have us believe.
Econotron - 27 Jul 2008 19:58 GMT
>>>>> There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
>>>>> high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world until we run
[quoted text clipped - 17 lines]
> escalating, it may therefore not be such a rosy scenario as he would have
> us believe.

There is no rosy scenario. We may just have a little more time to develop
other energy sources, solar and nuclear being the best bet. 50% population
increase may not materialize, but just in case, the West needs to maintain
its military might. Switch to the alternative energy sources will put
greater pressure on metals and other technological materials, however
investing in commodities may be dangerous, since the governments will likely
put a break on their trading, including outright confiscations. However,
there is another, safer way to profit from it. :-)
e.
jmfbahciv - 27 Jul 2008 14:24 GMT
>> There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
>> high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world until we run
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> even nearly accurate.
> e.

He simply wrote a different intro to his fixation on forcing science
to make something work that is against physical laws, where laws
are physics rules of reality and not legal coda of societies.

/BAH
Day Brown - 27 Jul 2008 02:11 GMT
> There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
> high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world until we run
> out, according to current estimates.
No Jerry. Nobody foresaw the rapid explosion of the Asian economies and
how that ramped up fuel consumption. And at the current rate of ongoing
accelleration, current production, much less future, cant keep up. The
shock of that truth is hitting the financial markets hard because those
estimates were wrong.

Global stock markets are collapsing, which will lower production, and
that will bring down consumption as people are laid off. Its gonna be
damn tricky for the power elites to keep it together with out several
revolutions dragging them out to be shot.

Its not even a zero sum game. As I have posted several times regarding
Hubbard's peak, what while the rise followed the bell curve, the decline
will be precipitous. If sheeple were rational and speculators not
greedy, it could be handled well. But as the price rises, so does the
greed. As the Greed rises so does the violence in the attempts to
control some supply source. As the violence rises, this damages the
infrastructure, which we now see, as I predicted, in Nigeria.

And as the infrastructure is damaged, production declines, which drives
up the price, the greed, the violence... iterate until systemic collapse.
Rod Speed - 27 Jul 2008 03:53 GMT
> Jerry Kraus wrote

>> There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the
>> world until we run out, according to current estimates.

> No Jerry. Nobody foresaw the rapid explosion of the Asian economies and how that ramped up fuel consumption. And at
> the current rate of ongoing accelleration, current production, much less future, cant keep up.

They will, you watch.

> The shock of that truth is hitting the financial markets
> hard because those estimates were wrong.

Nope, that isnt the reason for the financial market turmoil.

> Global stock markets are collapsing,

Nope.

> which will lower production,

Nope.

> and that will bring down consumption as people are laid off.

Hardly anyone has been laid off.

> Its gonna be damn tricky for the power elites to keep it together with out several revolutions dragging them out to be
> shot.

Been having those pathetic little drug crazed fantasys long ?

We didnt even get that during the great depression and wont do now either.

> Its not even a zero sum game.

We'll see...

> As I have posted several times regarding Hubbard's peak, what while the rise followed the bell curve, the decline will
> be precipitous.

Easy to claim, hell of a lot harder to actually substantiate that claim.

> If sheeple were rational and speculators not greedy, it could be handled well.

Its being handled well.

> But as the price rises, so does the greed. As the Greed rises so does the violence in the attempts to control some
> supply source.

How odd that we havent seen anything like that.

> As the violence rises, this damages the infrastructure, which we now see, as I predicted, in Nigeria.

Thats been happening there for a long time now. It wont be happening anywhere else, you watch.

> And as the infrastructure is damaged, production declines, which drives up the price, the greed, the violence...
> iterate until systemic collapse.

Pure fantasy. There wont be any systemic collapse. We didnt even get that during the great depression.
jmfbahciv - 27 Jul 2008 14:27 GMT
>> There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
>> high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world until we run
>> out, according to current estimates.
> No Jerry. Nobody foresaw the rapid explosion of the Asian economies and
> how that ramped up fuel consumption.

People did foresee this.

 <snip>

/BAH
Jerry Kraus - 27 Jul 2008 20:27 GMT
> > There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
> > high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world until we run
[quoted text clipped - 21 lines]
> And as the infrastructure is damaged, production declines, which drives
> up the price, the greed, the violence... iterate until systemic collapse.

System collapse is not always a bad thing.  Classical Greece,
seventeenth century Britain, nineteenth century America all had
catastrophic civil wars, and they were the most productive and
creative societies in history.   Nothing like a nice civil war to make
you think outside of the box.
Rod Speed - 27 Jul 2008 20:49 GMT
>>> There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
>>> high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world until we run
[quoted text clipped - 23 lines]
>> drives up the price, the greed, the violence... iterate until
>> systemic collapse.

> System collapse is not always a bad thing.  Classical Greece,
> seventeenth century Britain, nineteenth century America all had
> catastrophic civil wars,

Neither had system collapse as a result.

> and they were the most productive and creative societies in history.

And would have been without the civil war too.

> Nothing like a nice civil war to make you think outside of the box.

But it didnt produce system collapse.
hhc314@yahoo.com - 27 Jul 2008 04:25 GMT
> There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
> high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world until we run
[quoted text clipped - 20 lines]
> than the risks of developing real nuclear fusion reactors, which are
> considerable.  Till then, the price of energy cannot go down.

Jerry, I hate to share this basic fact with you, but science know no
such thing as controlled nuclear fusion. If you wish to appear like
arm waving presidential candidate (himself a Junior Senator, and it
was a miracle in itself that he have elected to that), all if the arm
waving in the world will not make any difference. Our "Howdy Doody"
candidate for president know less about the realities of scince and
technology that does Al Gore, and that is not saying much, yet he
claims to know the solution -- in fact solutons for everthing!  Damn,
I haven't heard a campaign base on wild eyed goal, and not since my
home town dog catcher ran for town mayor, and of course lost.

The scientific reality is simply this. Most ground transportation can
be powerer electrically, and nuclear fissiion has the capability to
provide all this energy unless restricted by mindless regulations and
licensing restrictions using proven safe reactor designs. .  That is
fact.

Any other alternative energy technology suffers from enormous
environtmental drawbacks, including hydro-electric, wind turbines, and
solar capture arrays. If you Google any of these technologies you will
find the enverononmental lobby's objections to all.

Actually, I like the concept of nuclear energy generation, but then I
am a physicist. I also spend a few years working in nuclear fusion
work, and all of those activities led to a dead end.  Scinece knows
how to produce nuclear fusion, but not how to do it continuously and
under control.  The hyrogen bomb is a good example of a nuclear fusion
reaction that is uncontrolled.  The trick is how to obtain that
control, and I strongly suspect that somewhere within the next 500
years, science will know how to accomplish that.

Until then, it might not be a good time to give up your day job.

Harry C.
Ian Smith - 27 Jul 2008 10:19 GMT
>> There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
>> high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world until we run
[quoted text clipped - 44 lines]
> Actually, I like the concept of nuclear energy generation, but then I am
> a physicist. I also spend a few years working in nuclear fusio

n work,
> and all of those activities led to a dead end.  Scinece knows how to
> produce nuclear fusion, but not how to do it continuously and under
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
>
> Harry C.

I think you are being a bit pessimistic about fusion power, and human
ingenuity; taken in the context of the last 100 years or so.
Ivan - 27 Jul 2008 10:38 GMT
>> Scinece knows how to
>> produce nuclear fusion, but not how to do it continuously and under
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
> I think you are being a bit pessimistic about fusion power, and human
> ingenuity; taken in the context of the last 100 years or so.

However if only a tiny fraction of the scientific expectations that I can
recall over the last 60 years had come anywhere near to being realized, then
by now all our major problems would have been solved.
Jerry Kraus - 27 Jul 2008 20:36 GMT
On Jul 26, 10:25 pm, "hhc...@yahoo.com" <hhc...@yahoo.com> wrote:

> > There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
> > high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world until we run
[quoted text clipped - 57 lines]
>
> - Show quoted text -

Look, I'm really not trying to be offensive here, and I appreciate
your frankness.  But, professional scientists are not, in general, the
most practically creative bunch.  Getting a Ph.D. means you have some
analytical skills, but it certainly doesn't mean you have any
particularly brilliant ideas.    The fact that you and your colleagues
have no clue doesn't necesssarily mean the problem is really that all
hard.  It just means you have no clue.

The approach I have repeatedly suggested -- inertial confinement using
thousands of micro-lasers aimed at a focal point to generate
temperatures of tens of millions of degrees -- is relatively simple,
safe and inexpensive.  And, it can be developed in stages.  That
doesn't mean I know exactly how to do it.  But, with innumerable
variables available for the tweaking, and the immense energy potential
of nuclear fusion, it sounds rather doable.  So, why isn't it being
done?

Well, you probably would blow yourself up if you kept at it. Can't
always know exactly how much energy is going to be released, and small
errors are catastrophic with E = m(c squared).  It is a totally new
approach, so there is no textbook to tell anyone what the next step
is.  And, up to  this point in time, it hasn't been essential to keep
the economy going.  Now, it is.
jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 27 Jul 2008 21:15 GMT
In sci.physics Jerry Kraus <jkraus_1999@yahoo.com> wrote:

> The approach I have repeatedly suggested -- inertial confinement using
> thousands of micro-lasers aimed at a focal point to generate
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
> of nuclear fusion, it sounds rather doable.  So, why isn't it being
> done?

Been done, doesn't work.

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Jerry Kraus - 27 Jul 2008 22:04 GMT
On Jul 27, 3:15 pm, j...@specsol.spam.sux.com wrote:
> In sci.physics Jerry Kraus <jkraus_1...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
[quoted text clipped - 13 lines]
>
> Remove .spam.sux to reply.

From what I heard from a military technician, it's been done, and it
does work.  The DOD was afraid it would work too well, and "get away
from them" .  So, they classified the technology.

Like I say, this would be extremely dangerous research.
jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 27 Jul 2008 22:35 GMT
In sci.physics Jerry Kraus <jkraus_1999@yahoo.com> wrote:
> On Jul 27, 3:15?pm, j...@specsol.spam.sux.com wrote:
> > In sci.physics Jerry Kraus <jkraus_1...@yahoo.com> wrote:
[quoted text clipped - 14 lines]
> >
> > Remove .spam.sux to reply.

> From what I heard from a military technician, it's been done, and it
> does work.  The DOD was afraid it would work too well, and "get away
> from them" .  So, they classified the technology.

I didn't hear about it from "a military technician", so it can't be
classified, and "get away from them" is gibberish if you have the
slightest clue how such things work.

> Like I say, this would be extremely dangerous research.

Utter nonsense. If it had worked people would be building power plants
now.

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Jerry Kraus - 27 Jul 2008 22:45 GMT
On Jul 27, 4:35 pm, j...@specsol.spam.sux.com wrote:
> In sci.physics Jerry Kraus <jkraus_1...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
[quoted text clipped - 35 lines]
>
> - Show quoted text -

I'm beginninig to wonder if you can possibly be as stupid and arrogant
as you sound.  Then again, if you are indeed a professional research
scientist, there are no limits to your stupidity and arrogance.

It worked, isofar as more energy was produced than was consumed.  But,
because of  the danger that the amount of energy being produced might
become sufficient to vaporize the experimenters and their
surroundings, the DOD decided not to proceed.  They got nervous.  They
were afraid the amount of energy produced would get out of their
control.  An H-bomb, rather than a reactor.

Like I keep saying, this would be extremely dangerous research.  Which
is why no one wants to do it.
jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com - 27 Jul 2008 23:15 GMT
In sci.physics Jerry Kraus <jkraus_1906@yahoo.com> wrote:
> On Jul 27, 4:35?pm, j...@specsol.spam.sux.com wrote:
> > In sci.physics Jerry Kraus <jkraus_1...@yahoo.com> wrote:
[quoted text clipped - 36 lines]
> >
> > - Show quoted text -

> I'm beginninig to wonder if you can possibly be as stupid and arrogant
> as you sound.  Then again, if you are indeed a professional research
> scientist, there are no limits to your stupidity and arrogance.

I'm beginning to wonder if you are anything other than an arm waving,
babbling kook.

> It worked, isofar as more energy was produced than was consumed.  But,
> because of  the danger that the amount of energy being produced might
> become sufficient to vaporize the experimenters and their
> surroundings, the DOD decided not to proceed.  They got nervous.  They
> were afraid the amount of energy produced would get out of their
> control.  An H-bomb, rather than a reactor.

Yeah, sure.

The DOD is keeping working fusion hidden just like GM is keeping the
200 MPG carburetor hidden.

> Like I keep saying, this would be extremely dangerous research.  Which
> is why no one wants to do it.

Right.

Funny, UCLA and LLNL are still fooling around with it. I guess the DOD
didn't tell them the idea was classified and the people at UCLA and
LLNL aren't whimpering pansies afraid to try.

http://www.research.ucla.edu/chal/8.htm

Funny, the Naval Research Labratory, Sandia National Labratory, Oak
Ridge National Labratory, Princeton Plasma Physics Labratory, General
Atomics, Schafer Corp, Science Applications International Corp, Coherent
Inc., Commonwealt Technology, Inc., Northrup, Onyx, DEI, Plasma Process,
Inc., USCS, University of Wisconsin, Georgia Tech, University of Rochester,
UCSB, and DELFT must not have gotten the word that it is too dangerous
to do, as they, and several others, have active experiments going on.

http://other.nrl.navy.mil/LaserFusionEnergy/nationallaserprogram.htm

Like I said, it has been done, the first time was in the 1960's, and it
doesn't work.

Maybe one day one of the fusion schemes will work*, but today it doesn't.

*work means controlled, continuous, and more power out than you put in.

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timeOday - 27 Jul 2008 05:02 GMT
> The only realistic alternative is controlled nuclear fusion.

My vote is for fission.  It's here.  It works.  It can be produced for
what is (now, at least) competitive prices.  The waste is contained.
It's carbon neutral.  The safety record is much safer than coal and oil.
jmfbahciv - 27 Jul 2008 14:31 GMT
>> The only realistic alternative is controlled nuclear fusion.
>
> My vote is for fission.  It's here.  It works.  It can be produced for
> what is (now, at least) competitive prices.  The waste is contained.
> It's carbon neutral.  The safety record is much safer than coal and oil.

then beat up your politicians.  Obama finally uttered the swear words,
"nuclear power plants" but only in terms of R&D.  None are talking
about building plants that will function.

/BAH
Benj - 27 Jul 2008 14:52 GMT
> > The only realistic alternative is controlled nuclear fusion.
>
> My vote is for fission.  It's here.  It works.  It can be produced for
> what is (now, at least) competitive prices.  The waste is contained.
> It's carbon neutral.  The safety record is much safer than coal and oil.

Ah, we are taking a vote for the solution to the end of civilization!

Yeah, fission is good, especially if you can use up all that nuclear
fuel as power rather than all at once as bombs.

But there is that once little minor problem of hideous nuclear waste
that hangs around for eons. My solution is we just find a  useless
area of the planet and rope it off and dump it there. My vote is for
Alabama. The Middle East ain't a half-bad choice either!
hhc314@yahoo.com - 27 Jul 2008 15:56 GMT
> But there is that once little minor problem of hideous nuclear waste
> that hangs around for eons. My solution is we just find a  useless
> area of the planet and rope it off and dump it there. My vote is for
> Alabama. The Middle East ain't a half-bad choice either!

Nah, that risk is greatly overrated.  Still, if you do need some
worthless place to trash it, my vote would be Las Vegas since there
nothing of value is produced there, or anywhere in Nevada.

Alabama at least grows great corn, and consequently produces great
'moonshine'.  :-)

Harry C.
The Trucker - 27 Jul 2008 18:25 GMT
>> > The only realistic alternative is controlled nuclear fusion.
>>
[quoted text clipped - 11 lines]
> area of the planet and rope it off and dump it there. My vote is for
> Alabama. The Middle East ain't a half-bad choice either!

(snicker)

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"I know no safe depository of the ultimate powers
of society but the people themselves; and
if we think them not enlightened enough to
exercise their control with a wholesome
discretion, the remedy is not to take it from
them, but to inform their discretion by
education." - Thomas Jefferson
http://GreaterVoice.org/extend

Econotron - 27 Jul 2008 20:17 GMT
>> > The only realistic alternative is controlled nuclear fusion.
>>
[quoted text clipped - 11 lines]
> area of the planet and rope it off and dump it there. My vote is for
> Alabama. The Middle East ain't a half-bad choice either!

There are nuclear waste re-processing technologies that reduce not only the
amount of disposable material but also the time it remains radioactive (but
still long enough). And we may also start thinking about building a couple
of huge lenses in space. :-)
e.
Tartarus - 27 Jul 2008 16:51 GMT
> The only realistic alternative is controlled nuclear fusion.  This is
> extremely dangerous to develop, which is why it is not being developed
> by lily-livered physicist-bureaucrats in the University system.  There
> is very little difference between a nuclear fusion reactor and a
> Hydrogen Bomb: a small difference in mass.  

You are incredibly ignorant on the subject, and I don't think any
facts will change your mind. Therefore, I will just keep pointing out
your ignorance.

Tartarus
hhc314@yahoo.com - 28 Jul 2008 05:09 GMT
> > The only realistic alternative is controlled nuclear fusion.  This is
> > extremely dangerous to develop, which is why it is not being developed
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
>
> Tartarus

Amen to that, That poster does not realize that over 50 years of
incredibly costly research has gone into the productin of controlled
nuclear fusion. The bottom line was that the result of all this
research was Zero.

Quite possibly during the next 100 or so years, someone will learn how
to tame the dragon, and gather useful energy from controlled
thermonuclear fusion reactions...perhaps someday. I can assure you
that this will not take place in my lifetime.

Then too, what do I know, since I only spent a couple of years working
on Princeton's Stellarator project which today is on display at the
Smithsonian (why I have no clue).

Harry C.
jmfbahciv - 28 Jul 2008 13:22 GMT
>> The only realistic alternative is controlled nuclear fusion.  This is
>> extremely dangerous to develop, which is why it is not being developed
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
> facts will change your mind. Therefore, I will just keep pointing out
> your ignorance.

He isn't ignorant; he's been instructed often.  He is choosing to
be stupid and is proud of it.  This is a psychological phenomena
that is occurring; people keep bleating for the impossible so that
they, and nobody else, will work on the real problems and the
problems that do have solutions.  I think they are aping the
talking heads they see on TV, the movies, etc.  It's some
flavor of Hollywooditis.  Combine that with PCitis and
stupidity becomes an affliction that is admired and rewarded.

/BAH
Jerry Kraus - 28 Jul 2008 15:27 GMT
> >> The only realistic alternative is controlled nuclear fusion.  This is
> >> extremely dangerous to develop, which is why it is not being developed
[quoted text clipped - 16 lines]
>
> /BAH

Saying something is impossible is a self-fulfilling prophecy.  The
fact that the professional physics community is grossly incompetent is
hardly news.  The Wright Brothers beat out the entire planet, whole
world empires, in developing an airplane with the resources of a
bicycle shop.
zzbunker@netscape.net - 28 Jul 2008 17:58 GMT
> > >> The only realistic alternative is controlled nuclear fusion.  This is
> > >> extremely dangerous to develop, which is why it is not being developed
[quoted text clipped - 22 lines]
> world empires, in developing an airplane with the resources of a
> bicycle shop.- Hide quoted text -

  Well, that's because a lot of them were predicting there would
  men on mars with relativistic rockets by 1940. Since the only
  thing most of the idiots knew about relativity was in fact bicyles,
  Which is why most of them were surprised when Von Neumann
  later proved that the only place rockets are going is straight
  to Game Theory.

> - Show quoted text -
Jerry Kraus - 28 Jul 2008 19:58 GMT
On Jul 28, 11:58 am, "zzbun...@netscape.net" <zzbun...@netscape.net>
wrote:

>    Which is why most of them were surprised when Von Neumann
>    later proved that the only place rockets are going is straight
>    to Game Theory.

Now, you may have hit on a very interesting notion indeed, here.
What, on earth, would Johnny Von Neumann have made of the difficulties
and "games" being played by the professional physicists with
controlled nuclear fusion?
zzbunker@netscape.net - 29 Jul 2008 08:21 GMT
> On Jul 28, 11:58 am, "zzbun...@netscape.net" <zzbun...@netscape.net>
> wrote:
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
> and "games" being played by the professional physicists with
> controlled nuclear fusion?

 Mostly what he had already did. Uncontrolled nuclear fusion,
 Axioms of Set Theory, and a week-in-review of Gauss'  Theorem for
the idiots.
Jerry Kraus - 28 Jul 2008 20:03 GMT
On Jul 28, 11:58 am, "zzbun...@netscape.net" <zzbun...@netscape.net>
wrote:

> > Saying something is impossible is a self-fulfilling prophecy.  The
> > fact that the professional physics community is grossly incompetent is
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
>    later proved that the only place rockets are going is straight
>    to Game Theory.

Seem to have gone to the other extreme, now.  Apparently, we've
discovered everything there is to be discovered, and all further
scientific or technological progress is a scientific impossibility.
Ah, sigh.
Rod Speed - 28 Jul 2008 21:25 GMT
> On Jul 28, 11:58 am, "zzbun...@netscape.net" <zzbun...@netscape.net>
> wrote:
[quoted text clipped - 15 lines]
> discovered everything there is to be discovered, and all further
> scientific or technological progress is a scientific impossibility.

Been having those pathetic little fantasys long ?

Have fun explaining the human genome project.

> Ah, sigh.

Heavy breathing aint gunna save your bacon.
Rod Speed - 28 Jul 2008 21:23 GMT
>>>> The only realistic alternative is controlled nuclear fusion. This
>>>> is extremely dangerous to develop, which is why it is not being
[quoted text clipped - 22 lines]
> world empires, in developing an airplane with the resources of a
> bicycle shop.

Irrelevant to what the professional physics community was involved in.

And those two didnt beat out the entire planet, they were just
arguably the first to demonstate the powered flight was feasible.

That was engineering, not physics.

The bicycle wasnt a product of the professional physics community either.

And neither was the car.
Darwin123 - 27 Jul 2008 23:05 GMT
> The only realistic alternative is controlled nuclear fusion.  This is
> extremely dangerous to develop, which is why it is not being developed
> by lily-livered physicist-bureaucrats in the University system.  There
> is very little difference between a nuclear fusion reactor and a
> Hydrogen Bomb: a small difference in mass.
  Also a difference in threshold energy. To get two hydrogen nucleii,
both with positive charges, takes a lot of energy. So a runaway chain
reaction is very unlikely. The difficulty in creating fusion shows how
safe the process is. To get a neutron into a uranium atom takes very
little energy, because the neutron is uncharged. So runaway chain
reactions are very likely.
  Fusion is not based on a chain reaction. Fission is based on a
chain reaction. So fusion will be safer than fission, provided we get
the damn thing to work at all. That is the big question.
   Bureaucrats seldom worry about safety. I don't think the safety
issue is stopping fusion.
zzbunker - 28 Jul 2008 08:41 GMT
> There appears to be some confusion about why the price of oil is so
> high when we still have 30-40 years supply in the world until we run
> out, according to current estimates.

  The only real confusion about the price of oil, is idiot usenet and
it's idiot:Lawyers,
  Since the only reason the price of oil is high, is because idiot
lawyers
  always found it so convenient to include the price of  paint in the
price of oil.
  Which is mostly why more intelligent people invented  Digital
Systems,  AI,
  satellites, GPS,  laser disks, Holograms. HTDV, DVD, fiber optics,
PV Cells,
  nanotech, a gadzillion tonnes of wind energy, robots, and cruise
missiles,

 The critical point is that we
> have no alternative energy technology to replace oil.  And that means
> that, although there is no current shortage in our oil supply, there
[quoted text clipped - 17 lines]
> than the risks of developing real nuclear fusion reactors, which are
> considerable.  Till then, the price of energy cannot go down.
 
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